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Natural water vapour largely responsible for Global Warming: NOAA, NASA

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Nate Khaarl, Ecofactory.com
January 29, 2010

An increase in atmospheric water vapor is responsible for at least a third of the average temperature increase since the early 1990s, say scientists at the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Susan Soloman, the respected climate scientist who lead the research, says that this finding does not undermine man-made global warming theories. “Not to my mind it doesn’t,” she said. Soloman did point out that the research does allude to human emissions having a much smaller role in climate change than previously thought, and serves as a warning to climate modelers who “over-interpret the results from a few years one way or another.” Despite Soloman’s personally held belief, the NOAA study is expected to give further ammunition to climate skeptics working to draw public attention to perceived flaws in man-made global warming theories.

Soloman, in interviews with both the Associated Press and The Guardian, declined to comment on the negative publicity climate science has received recently due to the IPCC Himalaya error and Climategate, and to what the NOAA water vapor report could mean to skeptics and climate scientists alike. Soloman did mention that many scientists are now accepting, testing, and sometimes embracing skeptic research, and that the NOAA report is proof of that. “What I will say, is that this shows there are climate scientists round the world who are trying very hard to understand and to explain to people openly and honestly what has happened over the last decade.” Soloman co-chaired the last climate change assessment report prepared by the United Nations IPCC, but did not personally oversee the controversial Himalayan section.

Soloman said it was not clear if the drier atmosphere, which the NOAA report says is the reason global warming fell flat over the last decade, is a natural process or came to be due to human emissions. If the latter is true, carbon dioxide emissions would actually be responsible for a negative feedback that cancels at least some of the warming it causes by pushing water vapor back to the surface of the earth and out of the stratosphere, where it acts as a potent greenhouse gas. According to the report, a 10% decrease in atmospheric water vapor alone was responsible for a 25% drop in predicted temperature increase.

NASA Confirms Water Vapor Study

NASA researchers and climate scientists around the world have reviewed the NOAA water vapor research in advance to its recent publication in the journal Science, one of the most respected in the world. Describing the effect of water vapor on atmospheric temperature as “enormous,” researcher Andrew Dessler said that “everyone agrees that if you add carbon dioxide to the atmosphere, then warming will result. The real question is how much warming?” A Texas A&M researcher working in conjunction with NASA, Dessler pointed out that warmer air can contain contain higher amounts of water vapor, which could create a runaway positive feedback cycle.

The research, facilitated by a state-of-the-art NASA satellite codenamed AIRS, suggests that water vapor is responsible for twice the global warming effect of carbon dioxide, both man-made and naturally occurring. While this theory was has been carried by climate change skeptics for some time, global warming advocates dismissed them, saying that water vapor in the atmosphere was only a feedback effect caused by human emissions. NASA scientist Eric Fetzer say that the new study created models much more accurate to past events than those previously used by climate change advocates, and proves that “water vapor is the big player in the atmosphere as far as climate is concerned.”

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5 Responses to “Natural water vapour largely responsible for Global Warming: NOAA, NASA”

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