Today’s suburbs, tomorrow’s slums?
Monday, June 30th, 2008
Jeff Gray, Globe and Mail
June 30, 2008
‘Peak oil’ theorists say house prices outside cities will collapse as the cost of gas rises, forcing people to choose urban living
According to some doomsday scenarios, spiking gas prices could turn the cul-de-sacs and two-car garages that surround North America’s cities – built over the past 60 years and designed for the convenience of people with cars – into tomorrow’s slums.
The predictions for the most part come from subscribers to the theory of “peak oil,” which holds that crude prices will shoot permanently upward as global demand outstrips dwindling supply, ruining the economy. But their predictions are getting a second look now, as suburbanites, especially in the United States, grumble at the rising price of a fill-up.
Some warn the cost of gasoline will make the most sprawling U.S. suburbs so unattractive that housing values there will collapse, forcing many people to abandon their homes for urban areas better served by public transit and leaving only squatters, criminals and those who can’t afford to leave the outskirts.
Could it happen in Canada? Many experts doubt that gas prices, while bound to rise, will shoot up so suddenly as to strangle the suburbs, which do not sprawl to the extent that many do in the U.S. But it is clear that a shift away from the traditional suburb is also under way in Canada. Suburban municipal governments are scrambling to retrofit sprawl with denser development and better public transit to keep people moving, responding to concerns not just about the rising price of gas, but also about carbon emissions and traffic congestion.
Evidence that the suburbs are under siege as oil prices skyrocket is easy to find. In a recent essay in the Atlantic Monthly entitled The Next Slum?, Christopher Leinberger writes that the slide of many U.S. suburbs goes deeper than that country’s subprime mortgage crisis. Mr. Leinberger is a real-estate developer, a professor of urban planning at the University of Michigan and a visiting fellow at the Brookings Institution, a liberal think tank.
While foreclosures caused by the mortgage meltdown have left, in Florida’s Lee County, one in every four homes empty, Mr. Leinberger argues that a profound shift is taking place, driven by demographics, lifestyle changes and gas prices, as people choose urban, denser areas friendly to walking, cycling and public transit.
…
Trying to improve public transit across Toronto’s suburbs is the task set for Metrolinx, the new regional authority created by the province and governed by a board of mostly municipal politicians. It is expected next month to release a draft long-range transportation plan that could include billions of dollars in public transit along with controversial measures such as road tolls.
Metrolinx board member Paul Bedford, former chief planner for the City of Toronto, says suburban residents will need to wrap their minds around a more urban lifestyle, taking public transit more often and living with denser development around them.
“So many people I know, probably two generations, have grown up in the suburbs,” he said. “All they’ve known in their life is a subdivision, two or three cars and shopping at the mall. They don’t know any other life.”
In the Vancouver area, where sprawl is less dramatic, the debate has been driven not just by gas prices, but also by B.C.’s new carbon tax, which takes effect July 1, said Cheeying Ho, executive director of Smart Growth B.C., a non-governmental organization.
Both the carbon tax and rising gas prices “will definitely influence how development is moving forward, and how suburbs get recreated, redeveloped and retrofitted,” she said.
Full Story | See Also: Oil, oil everywhere? Well, just maybe | Road tolls, a bitter pill that works | World has enough oil reserves, says BP boss | Is it time for toll roads? | Toronto part of ‘transnational mega-region’ | Vancouver to import road tolls from UK | UK proposes national road tolls to cut congestion | Motorists to pay London toll
Did Bear Stearns melt down — or was it murdered?
BEIJING, June 29 — Thousands of people thronged a police station in southwestern China to protest the alleged coverup of a teenage girl’s rape and murder, witnesses and officials reported Sunday. The crowd set fire to a government complex and several police vehicles.
NEW YORK — With his 78th birthday approaching, it’s only natural that George Soros has turned reflective, and begun to take the full measure of his legacy. Gazillions of dollars? Check. Respect from powerful peers and world leaders? Check and check. Philanthropic renown, bordering on hagiography? Big check.
Gardeners have been warned not to eat home-grown vegetables contaminated by a powerful new herbicide that is destroying gardens and allotments across the UK.
OTTAWA–Evidence at British Columbia’s Taser inquiry may mean police forces across Canada, including the Ontario Provincial Police officers who zapped a suspect in Norfolk County near Simcoe this week, could be slapped with Criminal Code charges and wrongful death lawsuits.
Canada’s justice minister says suspected impaired drivers will no longer be able to refuse roadside sobriety tests and may face stiffer fines and longer jail times.
Canada must “step up its game” and become more open to foreign investment or risk losing its economic standing in the world to more “aggressive and determined” competitors, says the head of an expert panel that released its report on competition laws yesterday.