EU Looking for Presidential Candidates
Thursday, May 1st, 2008
BBC News
Thursday, 1 May 2008
From January 2009, the European Union will have its own president to chair EU summits and unite the views of 27 member states. Click on the country names to find out more about those being tipped for the top job, described by former French President Valery Giscard d’Estaing as Europe’s “own George Washington”.
ANDERS FOGH RASMUSSEN – DENMARK (Bilderberg 2003 – ed)
A potential favourite. Prime Minister of Denmark since 2001, Anders Fogh Rasmussen is not only considered to be at the height of his political career, but he is also a liberal and a pro-European. His government successfully steered the Lisbon Treaty through parliament, the Folketing, in April.
He is also charismatic. At a meeting with Silvio Berlusconi in 2002, the Italian leader joked that he might introduce his wife to Mr Rasmussen as he was “much better looking” than a man she was alleged to have had an affair with.
The Danish PM wants a referendum on one or several EU opt-outs |
The main thorn in the side of a potential Danish candidacy is the country’s four exemptions negotiated in 1992 after Danes rejected the Maastricht Treaty in a referendum. Denmark does not use the euro and has opted out of EU defence policy, judicial co-operation and European citizenship.
Mr Fogh Rasmussen has suggested calling a referendum on one or more of these exemptions for autumn 2008, and a Yes-vote would immediately enhance his credentials for the presidency.
Another argument weighing in his favour is that his Venstre party is part of the third biggest group, the Liberals, in the European Parliament.
If Jose Manuel Barroso, whose centre-right party in Portugal is part of the conservative grouping in Brussels, stays on as Commission President and Javier Solana, a Spanish socialist, takes up the role of High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy then there will be pressure for a liberal to take up the third remaining post at the top of the EU.
But Mr Rasmussen was re-elected for a third term in November 2007 and has indicated he still has a job to do.
BERTIE AHERN – REPUBLIC OF IRELAND (Bilderberg 1999 – ed)
Were it not for a question mark over his political future, Bertie Ahern would be among the strongest candidates.
Mr Ahern sees peace in the island of Ireland as his best achievement |
Known as the Teflon Taoiseach, the Irish PM leaves office under a cloud in May because of on-going inquiries about his finances at a tribunal into planning corruption.
At the helm of the Celtic Tiger’s economic success for more than a decade, he also played a vital role in negotiating the Good Friday Agreement.
Together with Tony Blair, he worked with Northern Ireland’s politicians to forge a blueprint for an end to violence.
He is seen as an affable deal-broker who would be well-regarded by most European states as having the ability to knock heads together and reach an agreement.
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THE PRESIDENT’S ROLE
Chosen by 27 member states by qualified majority vote 2-and-a-half-year term Can be re-elected once Chairs EU summits Drives forward the work of EU Council of Ministers Facilitates cohesion and consensus The face of the EU on common foreign and security policy |
When asked by reporters during a visit by Mr Ahern to Warsaw whether the Irish leader would make a good candidate, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk remarked that if he had “such an intention, the approach of the Poles would be most certainly and obviously favourable”.
One potential drawback for any Irish candidate is that the republic is not a top-tier member of the EU. Although it has joined the euro, together with the UK it has opted out of the Schengen agreement to scrap air and land borders between EU states.
Then there is the Irish referendum on the Lisbon Treaty, the only public vote in the EU. Opinion polls suggest a third of the electorate is undecided on the treaty, and a No-vote would rebound heavily on Mr Ahern and the centre-right Fianna Fail government.
JEAN-CLAUDE JUNCKER – LUXEMBOURG
There are few European figures with credentials as impeccable as the Luxembourg Prime Minister and head of the Eurogroup of finance ministers from eurozone member states. He has been at the heart of major EU negotiations since the signing of the Maastricht Treaty in February 1992.
Although very experienced, Mr Juncker is not seen as a unity candidate |
Mr Juncker is also one of the very few to have declared an interest in the job of president, assuming it has sufficient clout. “It will all depend on the precise job description. I have no intention of just cutting ribbons like a president of the French Fourth Republic,” he told a French newspaper in February.
While President Sarkozy of France might be happy with a centre-right candidate from Luxembourg, Gordon Brown would be unlikely to support him because of his federalist reputation. The newer member states would also be reluctant to be led by one of “old Europe’s” senior statesmen.
And then there is Luxembourg’s negligible influence over European politics. Mr Juncker’s success in steering through a referendum on the European Constitution weeks after it was rejected by Dutch and French voters will barely register even as a footnote in the document’s ill-fated history.
His comment at the time that the result was “every bit as important as those in France and the Netherlands” was at best ill-judged.
Nevertheless, given his extensive EU experience and status as Europe’s longest-serving leader, he is bound to be a front-runner.
ALEKSANDER KWASNIEWSKI – POLAND
Poland’s left-wing former president could best be described as a long-shot.
But he is the only figure mentioned so far from any of the 12 EU member states to have joined in recent years. And the new countries are keen to have a voice at the top table.
His long-standing political rival, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, may favour Bertie Ahern but Mr Kwasniewski has an impressive record.
Mr Kwasniewski played a mediating role in Ukraine’s Orange Revolution |
He played an active part in bringing Poland first into Nato in 1999 and then the EU in 2004. He helped mediate an end to the election crisis In Ukraine during the Orange Revolution in 2004.
Above all, he is one of the few socialists that could take on the job. If centre-right Portuguese incumbent Jose Manuel Barroso were to stay on as President of the Commission, there could be pressure for the new post of council president to be held by a left-winger.
However, there are those in Warsaw who consider Aleksander Kwasniewski as a spent force. He may be more comfortable teaching students in the United States about contemporary European politics rather than shaping it.
WOLFGANG SCHUESSEL – AUSTRIA
Austria has never had a significant figure at the top of the Brussels hierarchy, despite becoming a member in 1995. Nevertheless, it is at the heart of Europe, a participant in all the EU’s major initiatives such as the Schengen border-free accord and the euro.
Mr Schuessel is parliamentary leader of his conservative People’s Party |
As Chancellor, Wolfgang Schuessel was widely criticised for going into coalition government with the Freedom Party of nationalist leader Joerg Haider in 1999.
For a period, Austria was shunned by the rest of the EU. But Mr Schuessel was later praised for weakening the party’s influence, leading to its fall from grace and eventual internal division.
He may seem a dark horse in this presidential race, but could attract German support if Chancellor Angela Merkel shows no interest in the post. In his time in office, Mr Schuessel argued for a Europe-wide tax to fund the EU and expressed his reservations about Turkey joining the bloc.
A natural conservative, Mr Schuessel is parliamentary leader of the Austrian People’s Party. If he does not attract support for a high-profile role in Brussels, former Austrian Foreign Minister Benita Ferrero-Waldner could become a candidate for the EU’s foreign portfolio.
ANGELA MERKEL – GERMANY (Bilderberg 2006 – ed)
The German Chancellor would be well-fancied if she decided to join the race.
The job would probably be hers if she wanted it |
European Commission Vice President Margot Wallstrom has spoken out in her favour because of her abilities and because “there are few women in the running when it comes to the EU’s top jobs”.
Europe’s leaders are keen on a gender balance as well as a political balance in the EU’s hierarchy, and Ms Merkel was named in one recent opinion poll as Europe’s most influential politician.
Her European credentials are unquestionable, having forged a compromise that ultimately led to the signing of the Lisbon Treaty. And her term of office is due to come to an end in 2009.
Europe’s smaller member states might object to the top job going to the biggest country but the job would probably be hers if she wanted it. The main factor against a Merkel presidency is that she is unlikely to put her name in the hat.
TONY BLAIR – UK (Bilderberg 1993 – ed)
The former British prime minister is unlikely to step forward unless he is explicitly asked to serve as the EU’s first figurehead.
French President Nicolas Sarkozy argued in October 2007 that Mr Blair and Luxembourg PM Jean-Claude Juncker would be able to “give a face” to Europe.
In a speech in January, Mr Blair called for new ideas on Europe |
British diplomats say the Blair option is not even under discussion as the parameters of the job are not yet defined.
If the president is to become a major figure in world politics, the former Labour party leader might be interested, but less so if it becomes more of an organisational role.
Since leaving office, Tony Blair has worked as Middle East envoy for the US, UN, EU and Russia.
In January, he addressed Mr Sarkozy’s UMP party conference, in a speech that fuelled speculation that he might be interested in the Brussels job.
“We are much stronger and able to deliver what our citizens expect from us as individual nations if we are part of a strong and united Europe,” he said.
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QUESTION OF BALANCE
The EU will have three top jobs requiring a complex balance European Commission President, European Council President, High Representative At least one woman At least one new member state Socialist, conservative and liberal Big, medium and small countries North and south, east and west |
But just as he has his admirers across Europe, he also has fervent detractors, including the pro-European “Stop Blair” campaign.
While opposed to the British role in Iraq, the campaigners also object to Tony Blair’s EU record, particularly his red lines on EU tax harmonisation and the Charter of Fundamental Rights.
Although a former Labour party leader, he is more likely to attract the support of Europe’s centre-right governments than its socialists.
A British candidate might also be opposed on the grounds of the UK’s semi-detached reputation in some European initiatives.
It is unlikely to join the euro and is not part of the Schengen accord.
Belgian Foreign Minister Karel de Gucht summed up the objections to a British name: “The president of the European Council, who will be playing an important role on the world stage, should better come from a country that participates in all policies the European Union carries out.”
FELIPE GONZALEZ – SPAIN
A long shot for the job but with the necessary political weight and EU experience.
Mr Gonzalez is one of Europe’s most respected political figures |
Felipe Gonzalez spent 14 years as Spanish Prime Minister (1982-96) and took Spain into the EU.
He will be the head of a new think tank responsible for reflecting on the future of the EU from 2020-2030.
He is still a popular figure in Spain where his name has been linked with the EU presidency.
As a socialist, he would garner the support of the Spanish government if he chose to stand.
GUY VERHOFSTADT – BELGIUM
The Belgian former prime minister is possibly the rank outsider in the presidential race.
An outsider who has been rejected on a previous occasion |
Apart from Anders Fogh Rasmussen, he is perhaps the best-known liberal leader in the EU. Estonia, Finland and Romania all have liberal governments and might offer him their support. If the Danish Prime Minister declined the post because of domestic politics, a Belgian liberal might attract support.
But history is not on his side. France and Germany backed him for the job of European Commission President in 2004 but he alienated the UK, Italy and Poland by organising a defence summit involving countries opposed to the Iraq war.
The race for the presidency is likely to go down to the wire at the December summit of the European Council of leaders. Although a decision will be made by majority voting, the 27 member states will be hoping that a unity candidate comes forward.